Appraiser Shortage Could Gum Up the Works at Mortgage Lenders
American Banker, May 20, 2015
Mortgage lenders are facing a potential threat to their business that has nothing to do with new regulations or the uneven economic recovery: a persistent shortage of home appraisers.
Since the height of the housing boom in 2007, the number of individuals certified or licensed to do home appraisals has declined by 23,000, or 28%, according to the Appraisal Institute.
It’s not a crisis — at least not yet — but with older appraisers retiring and fewer and fewer college graduates entering the profession, some industry observers say that, in five to 10 years, there won’t be enough appraisers to handle the volume of home sales. For lenders, that could mean higher appraisal fees and long delays in closing loans — at a time when technology could be speeding up the process.
“In five years the banking industry will not have many appraisers left to do their mortgages,” said Rick Hiton, the owner of the Chicago appraisal firm Rick Hiton & Associates.
See entire article here
In my 32 years in real estate, I have never seen a “seller’s market” like the one today in North Texas. The North Texas economy and corporate relocations are driving this market to prices we have never seen before. REALTORS are seeing multiple offers over list price in many segments of the market. Great for sellers, but a true nightmare for buyers and appraisers.
See the Dallas Morning News Real Estate Editor, Steve Brown’s article for more details.
RAC members Tom Allen, SCRP, and Craig Gilbert, CRP, SRA, have been recognized by Worldwide ERC and will be honored at the National Relocation Conference this week in Las Vegas.
Tom Allen, SCRP, has earned WERC’s 2015 Distinguished Service Award. By earning this award he also achieves Senior Certified Relocation Professional status, and joins only 170 Worldwide ERC members who hold this designation.
Tom has been a member of RAC since 1995, and is RAC’s treasurer. He started his real estate appraisal and consulting firm in Tulsa, Oklahoma in 1971.
Craig Gilbert, CRP, SRA, has been awarded Worldwide ERC’s 2015 Meritorious Service Award. Craig was previously awarded the President’s award for development of the 2010 WERC relocation appraisal report.
Craig is one of the founding members of RAC, and serves on the board of directors. He has been an active appraiser since 1975. His firm is located in Huntington Beach, California.
Collin County projected to grow 386% over the next 35 years, with the addition of more than 3 million residents and growing its population from 782,341 to 3.8 million.
Go to the Dallas Business Journal to see the entire article.
Click the Google map and see the population projections county by county.
If the projections are accurate or even close, some areas of Texas will be a little crowded in 2050.
Preowned home prices in the Dallas area ended 2014 with a 7.5 percent gain from 2013, according to the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
December’s price increase was slightly lower than the 7.7 percent annual rise reported in November. It’s in line with year-over-year price appreciation during the second half of last year.
“As long as we have a tight sellers’ market, it’s going to be in that area,” said Dr. James Gaines, an economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “The good news is it’s not 12 or 15 percent. “We can live with this for a while.”
The Dallas-area price rise was well above the 4.6 percent nationwide appreciation rate in December.
Dallas had the fourth-highest increase among the 20 major markets that Case-Shiller surveys for its monthly report.
“Movements in home prices show clear regional patterns,” said S&P’s David Blitzer. “The western half of the nation plus Miami and Atlanta enjoyed year-over-year increases of 5 percent or more.
“San Francisco and Miami were the strongest,” he said. “Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas and Atlanta also experienced solid gains.”
San Francisco prices were up 9.3 percent from December 2013 levels. Prices in Miami were up 8.4 percent.
Dallas-area home prices are now almost 13 percent higher than they were before the recession and have risen more than 30 percent since early 2012.
“The affordability is coming down,” Gaines said. “It’s particularly hitting the low- to moderate-income groups.”
Case-Shiller’s study tracks over time the prices of specific single-family homes in each metropolitan area. The index survey does not include condominiums and townhouses.
The median price of homes sold in North Texas by real estate agents through their multiple listing service was 11 percent higher in December from a year earlier.
Source: Dallas Morning News
Steve Brown’s recent article in the Dallas Morning News, “Dallas home prices continue to gain with 7.6% rise over last year” reported the Dallas area is among the top five markets in the country for home price increases in the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price report.
The article also quotes, Metrostudy’s David Brown to say “The Dallas-Fort Worth market is heading into 2015 with even less inventory than was in the market a year ago.”
The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex encompasses 13 counties, 9,286 square miles and is a very large housing market. There are several RAC members in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, so if you need information concerning a specific sub-market, please do not hesitate to give them a call.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal “Dodgy Home Appraisals Make a Comeback” expressed concern over a growing occurrence of appraisals with inflated values.
Digital Risk found that some appraised values were off the mark based on discrepancies that appeared unintentional, though, “at other times, the appraiser’s selection of [comparable properties]…is very hard to justify,” said Thomas Showalter, chief analytics officer at Digital Risk.
Falling mortgage volume is bringing out some of the bad practices that dominated the prior housing boom and makes the need for qualified and experienced appraisers essential – something that an organization like RAC is built with.
One of our members with extensive appraisal experience was able to thwart the pressure because he understood the local market, something not emphasized by lenders today as in year’s past.
Tom Allen, who says he has been an appraiser for 44 years, recalled appraising a house in April for about $450,000 for a loan application with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. About a week later, Mr. Allen, 68 years old, says he received a request from the appraisal-management company to use two different properties as comparables that had recently sold for around $525,000 and $540,000. Mr. Allen says he refused because the homes were larger, in a more expensive neighborhood and built about 10 years after the property in question.
On September 5, 2014, Relocation Appraisers & Consultants, Inc. (RAC) became the newest member of The Appraisal Foundation Advisory Council (TAFAC). RAC member, Thomas E. Allen, CRP, recently attended the TAFAC’s general membership meeting in Washington, D.C.
TAFAC is composed of 58 non-profit organizations and government agencies, which represent appraisers, users of appraisal services and government agencies. TAFAC serves to involve the public in the appraisal standards and appraiser qualifications development process.
Member organizations of TAFAC represent various professions and occupations. TAFAC currently includes organizations representing appraisers, home builders, real estate brokers, financial institution regulators, federal land acquisition agencies, the secondary mortgage market and the private mortgage insurance industry.
TAFAC makes recommendations to the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB), Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB) and Board of Trustees (BOT) on major issues pending before the Boards. In addition, recommendations are also made regarding agenda of projects, the selection of task forces, amendments to the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), Statements or Advisory Opinions under development by the ASB and revisions to the AQB Appraiser Qualification Criteria and Interpretations/Clarifications.
RAC is very excited about being a member of TAFAC and this opportunity to serve the appraisal industry.
The best U.S. small city to live in has a median household income around $100,000, a healthy but not booming economy, high home values, very low property taxes and isn’t in the Northeast.